According to Nate over at FiveThirtyEight.com, Obama looks like he might be competing for 1 of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes. What does that mean for Senate (and O2B) candidate Scott Kleeb?
Recall that unlike most states, Nebraska and Maine split their electoral votes. Thus, winning one of the 3 (in the case of Nebraska) or 2 (in the case of Maine) districts allows a candidate to collect an electoral vote from that state even if he doesn't win the state overall.
In recent weeks, we've heard that McCain may be making a play for 1 of Maine's 4 electoral votes, but now Nate is telling us that it looks like the Obama campaign may think that part of Nebraska is in play:
[Obama's Nebraska state director John] Berge told us that we’d know if the Nebraska 2d congressional district internals had the McCain camp worried if we started seeing Republican surrogates in the area. With every day's time so precious for each candidate -- an issue of resource allocation -- campaigns have to prioritize where the smartest expenditure of time will be. The nominee or VP nominee going to an area is a big deal.
Tomorrow night, a mere month before the election, not a surrogate but Sarah Palin herself is visiting Omaha, while Barack Obama just opened a second field office. Early voting is already underway.
The most likely opportunity for the pickoff is in the Omaha area, which is the most urban and most Democratic portion of the state.
While the attempted pickoff is great news for the Obama campaign, it also has game-changing potential for Senate (and O2B) candidate Scott Kleeb. Kleeb has great name recognition in the Western part of Nebraska owing to valiant 2006 congressional campaign in that part of the state, but he's struggled with fundraising (hint hint) relative to his Republican opponent.
Omaha is in the far Eastern part of the state, where Kleeb's name recognition is less strong. An Obama play for this portion of the state, complete with massive younger voter registration drives, has the potential to have a lot of good spillover effects for downticket candidates like Kleeb.
Kleeb has had a tough slog this election cycle, but an Obama push in Omaha combined with the general collapse of all things Republican may be just what Scott Kleeb needs to turn the election around!
What do y'all think? If Nebraska--or even a part of Nebraska--is in play, then we're living in a whole new political reality. And I think that new political reality looks a lot like Scott Kleeb.
